11 or 10.8

[user01]

Which one do you think it will be? It's hard to help but wonder.

[rAC]

It might even be numberless.

[polanoid]

Ask on the Spinal Tap forum 

[rAC]

3 hours ago, polanoid said:

Ask on the Spinal Tap forum 

We know they’d say 11

[David Nahmani]

Well, it's one louder, isn't it? 

[fisherking]

i've heard (but can't reveal my source), that they're moving to a letter system, so the next version will be Logic Pro A. when they hit Z... what will happen? 🤔

Edited October 27, 2023 by fisherking

[ozinga]

17 minutes ago, fisherking said:

i've heard (but can't reveal my source), that they're moving to a letter system, so the next version will be Logi Pro A. when they hit Z... what will happen? 🤔

That is 260 years away 😂

[fisherking]

1 hour ago, ozinga said:

That is 260 years away 😂

so... you're saying we should start worrying now? 

[des99]

18 hours ago, user01 said:

Which one do you think it will be? It's hard to help but wonder.

If it's a regular, continual free-upgrade with bug fixes, compatibility and some new stuff, then 10.8.

If Apple want to move to a subscription model*, either as an additional option or particularly if it's subscription-only, then I think they'll go to 11 for this, because everyone's LP10 license won't be valid for 11, so it forces the issue. Either way it'll generate revenue.  I guess that partly depends on what new stuff they've got to justify a major update.

* Does anyone have a feel for how the subscription-only iPad versions are doing?

Edited October 27, 2023 by des99

[user01]

subscription seems like a sure thing, if they give UAD quality console emulations and UAD quality stock plugins, they can't give that much for free. They can definitely create a plugin manager and call it a subscription for new plugins, or a full subscription, they didn't want a subscription for 10 years anyway, but if they don't come up with a version good enough to require a subscription, many people might switch to another daw, so if it's going to be a subscription, they have to show something worth it

[Mania]

7 hours ago, fisherking said:

i've heard (but can't reveal my source), that they're moving to a letter system, so the next version will be Logic Pro A. when they hit Z... what will happen? 🤔

They will go back to cat names 🙂

[Mania]

26 minutes ago, user01 said:

subscription seems like a sure thing, if they give UAD quality console emulations and UAD quality stock plugins, they can't give that much for free. They can definitely create a plugin manager and call it a subscription for new plugins, or a full subscription, they didn't want a subscription for 10 years anyway, but if they don't come up with a version good enough to require a subscription, many people might switch to another daw, so if it's going to be a subscription, they have to show something worth it

Yeah. Logic as is, is keeping me on the Mac..then iPhone for Airdrop..and iPad for Logic remote. 
They have to be careful playing with subscriptions. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Mania
Typo

[fisherking]

i'd rather adapt to what's next than plan for what might or might not happen. guess we'll know when we know...

Edited October 27, 2023 by fisherking

[user01]

maybe like pro tools can drop numbers in logic and switch according to the calendar logic pro 2024.01..

[user01]

Whatever it's going to be, it better happen soon 🙂 

[loukash]

If Apple goes subscription now, then they will pry my 10.7.9 from my cold, dead hands.
Ask Adobe, hehe: they haven't got a cent from me since they went subscription. Nowadays I do my design work with Serif's Affinity suite instead.

Also, I won't get bored with Logic 10 for many years to come, since in the past 20+ years of being a Logic user I may have thoroughly explored perhaps only 30 % of its current potential so far. I'm constantly finding new features that don't cease to amaze and surprise me. :D

[anp27]

Depending on how great the next version of Logic is and IF it goes to subscription only I'll probably cave and do the subscription as long as the price is somewhat reasonable. I am that invested in Logic at this point and have no desire to learn a brand new DAW. If I feel the need to jump ship because of a subscription model I will most likely move to Reaper. 

[just20]

I saw on Youtube a video about a guy, that said that UAD maybe would co-operate with Apple.

I hope no subscription model, but would be cool if they are really co-operate with UAD and would be standard integrated in Logic. Anyways Logic exist now for 10 years already. Would not be surprised if there will be a Logic 11 soon or in the future.

[Glenn L.]

But will future OSes/machines support Logic X? That's another way they could force the issue.

I go out of my way to avoid sub models. Whatever revenue Apple would receive would be a miniscule gain in their capital.

Apple is gonna do what Apple does, independently of public opinion.

As they always have.

[apricotandpearjam]

I have a feeling L11 is imminent.

I'm hoping they dont go subscription.

 

[rAC]

8 hours ago, anp27 said:

Depending on how great the next version of Logic is and IF it goes to subscription only I'll probably cave and do the subscription as long as the price is somewhat reasonable. I am that invested in Logic at this point and have no desire to learn a brand new DAW. If I feel the need to jump ship because of a subscription model I will most likely move to Reaper. 

reluctantly I too will probably go there. Although I tried Reaper years ago and couldn’t make much of it.

[rAC]

PS I don’t see anything so great about UAD stuff @Glenn L.,

 

[David Nahmani]

 

Will Logic Pro for Mac switch to a subscription model?

In order to attempt to better guess the decisions that Apple may make in the future, we can take a look at the decisions Apple has made in the past, like Apple's recent decision to offer Logic Pro for iPad as a subscription software. 

It is important to keep in mind a clear vision of Apple's target markets. The iPad and Mac segments are two very distinct populations, with very little intersection. In other words, many users have a Mac but not an iPad, and many other users have an iPad but not a Mac. There remains only a very small population of users who own both a Mac and an iPad. With Logic Pro for iPad, Apple is not targeting users of Logic Pro for Mac. They are targeting the population who owns an iPad but not a Mac, and who up until now did not have access to Logic Pro. This population is growing, as shown by the declining sales of PCs overall, but especially at Apple. (see: PC Sales Dropped Nearly 30% in Q1 (2023) With Apple the Biggest Loser)

The two apps will of course have to be as similar as possible and remain compatible, and it seems obvious that the new features of Logic Pro for iPad that can be integrated into Logic Pro for Mac will be. Other features will only exist on the iPad, either because it would be complicated or impossible to port them to macOS, or because they would not make sense in the absence of a multi-touch surface. Given these distinctions between the two apps, I personally see no reason for Apple to rush to adopt the same payment system for both.

Apple showed us in 2007, by reselling a software suite that was previously worth more than €5,000 for only €999, then later €499, and then finally €199, while continuing to maintain it and add new features for the last 12 years without charging more money, that its Mac model is not so much to generate income through the sale of software for the Mac but rather through the sale of hardware, Macs and peripherals. So I find it hard to imagine that this latest decision (to sell Logic Pro for iPad by subscription) would challenge more than two decades of decision making since the acquisition of Emagic in 2002.

Moreover, I'm sure the recent Waves debacle with their decision to adopt a subscription model, the subsequent customer uproar and their ensuing decision reversal did not go unnoticed by the entire industry, including Apple.

So in my opinion, a subscription model for Logic Pro for Mac is not in the cards. 

We already had some discussion on that topic back when Logic Pro for iPad was originally announced: 

 

[Glenn L.]

55 minutes ago, rAC said:

PS I don’t see anything so great about UAD stuff @Glenn L.,

I never said anything about UAD. 

[blinkofani]

Good thing that I went back to LP9 not so long ago, for reasons I won’t go into here, so if the new version goes subscription-only it won’t affect me. I would not go into subscription for a DAW as I now use it very part-time. Using it professionally and making money out of it? Sure, no problems if the price is fair. Same as my TV sub, if for any reason I would watch TV 2 hours/month, I would stop paying.

David makes good points about not comparing the tablet market with the Mac market. Someone who decides to not continue using Logic has zero incentive to stay on Mac. Most other DAWs in the market are Windows-compatible so when the time comes to renew your computer you could look elsewhere. If LP11 comes and sells for 200$, with all the new customers they now have because of the price structure they used with LP10, they would make a lot of money. Not so long ago, my day job was selling audio interfaces and speakers, etc. I’ve done that for years and believe me, a lot more people use Logic compared to 15 years ago!!

Apple could decide to charge like 50$ for version like LP11.1, 11.2, etc and it would provide a constant income from Logic. I can’t think of someone who would complain to pay 50$ if the new version has new features the user is interested in. That would make a kind of subscription model but the user can continue to use the previous version if he/she doesn’t want to pay for the new version… as long as the older version you use stays compatible with macOS!!

Edited October 28, 2023 by blinkofani

[des99]

30 minutes ago, David Nahmani said:

So I find it hard to imagine that this latest decision (to sell Logic Pro for iPad by subscription) would challenge more than two decades of decision making since the acquisition of Emagic in 2002.

There are a few things that give me pause on this. One is, there's been a decade of free updates, for apps that pros use to run their businesses off. The second is that Apple are increasingly bullish on Services revenue. Now that iPhone sales are slowing due to market penetration and people holding on to their (expensive) phones for longer, Apple are looking at what could be the next thing should iPhone sales continue to decline, and alongside various R&D, have been working very hard at investing in, and growing, Services revenue.

Now, we don't know what goes into the decision making - they could well say "Subscription revenue from ProApps would be such a drop in the bucket to our existing business that we don't care, and won't monetise them in that way. We're happy being a loss leader for the Mac as we've been up to now". But then other management may say "We're leaving money on the table here".

Now, maybe current Logic sales easily pay for the development of Logic, so maybe they just don't care that much. But if the sales don't cover costs, sooner or later, some management type is going to look at the numbers and think "Ok, maybe it's time to change things up."

So, just because it's been like this for the last decade, through the iPhone boom, I'm not assuming it's going to stay that way for the next decade, now the iPhone boom is over and Apple are working harder for sales.

Honestly, it could go either way, and it's entirely possible that those decisions have been fought over, and decided already.

All we can do is watch and see what happens, really.

[polanoid]

1 hour ago, David Nahmani said:

This population is growing, as shown by the declining sales of PCs overall, but especially at Apple

Or not so much https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/apples-mac-market-share-jumped-even-though-pc-sales-fell-for-the-sixth-consecutive-quarter.html

[David Nahmani]

8 minutes ago, polanoid said:

Or not so much https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/apples-mac-market-share-jumped-even-though-pc-sales-fell-for-the-sixth-consecutive-quarter.html

That's market shares of Mac vs PCs. 

I was talking about Mac sales: 

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/263428/apples-revenue-from-macintosh-computers-since-first-quarter-2006/

[polanoid]

4 minutes ago, David Nahmani said:

I was talking about Mac sales: 

 

I was referrring to your claim "especially at Apple". Sales surely can't have fallen more than the entire industry when the market share was up.

Edited October 28, 2023 by polanoid

[David Nahmani]

19 minutes ago, polanoid said:

I was referrring to your claim "especially at Apple". Sales surely can't have fallen more than the entire industry when the market share was up.

Ah I see, good point indeed. That seems to contradict my source then, which states that:

Global PC shipments totaled 56.9 million, a 29% decrease compared to the same period in 2022, based on initial data from IDC. Analysts believe these results signify an end to the COVID-induced demand period and a temporary revert to pre-COVID trends. Shipments in Q1 2023 were substantially lower than the 59.2 million and 60.6 million units in Q1 2019 and Q1 2018, respectively. 

While all PC makers lost sales in the first quarter, Apple was perhaps the biggest loser, with a 40.5% year-over-year decline. 

Then again now that I'm reading this, it does appear that COVID may indeed be responsible for these 2020 number jumps which are now only returning to normal rather than really showing a decline.